We are just under two weeks away from Election Day, with state legislative and gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia and some big mayoral races in Boston, Detroit, New York and others.
One year ago, I thought the gubernatorial races could be interesting and closely contested. At least I was right about interesting part.
A year ago New Jersey was about to get hit by Hurricane Sandy, which ravaged the Jersey coastline. To make matters worse an early snow storm (and Congress) delayed recovery efforts. A year ago, Newark Mayor Corey Booker was still considering challenging Governor Christie, in what would have been an epic battle of political heavy weights.
Hurricane Sandy allowed Governor Christie to demonstrate strong leadership in a crisis, which allowed the governor to begin to move ahead of any potential Democratic challengers. It didn't hurt that he was able to embrace President Obama for the president's leadership before, during and after the storm. It didn't hurt that Christie called out Speaker John Boehner and House Republicans for holding up Sandy Relief funds in a game of political chicken. It didn't hurt that Mayor Booker opted for a Senate run, rather than face the popular governor. And it didn't hurt that Governor Christie was able to keep Mayor Booker off the November ballot by holding a special election for an open Senate seat in October. All of that has Governor Christie coasting to an apparent victory.
So instead of an close and interesting race, we are left wondering what might have been. And wondering how much does Christie have to win by to be considered a credible candidate for president in 2016.
A year ago Virginia was looking at an ugly gubernatorial race involving two very polarizing candidates - former DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe and Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli. No two candidates were as hated by the base of their opponents as these two candidates.
A year seems like a very long time ago for Virginia Republicans. In February this year, Governor Bob McDonnell's (R) crowning legislative achievement, a much-needed transportation bill, passed after being embraced by the Demcorcatic candidate and denounced by the Republican one. Over the summer, Governor McDonnell became engulfed in a scandal regarding his relationship with Virginia businessman Jonnie Williams. The scandal also threatened to derail the Attorney General's campaign for governor. To further add to Cuccinelli's problems, Virginia Republicans nominated a little-known, far-right candidate for Lt. Governor. The surprise nomination of E.W. Jackson forced Cuccinelli, a very conservative Tea Party favorite himself, to cancel post-convention press events. Even Northern Virginia Republican icon, former Delegate Vince Callahan endorsed the former DNC chair.
So we are instead of a close race, we are left wondering if we can read anything into the Clintons stumping for their old friend in the final weeks of the election. What does a big McAuliffe win mean for Secretary Clinton and her decision to run again in 2016?
A lot of political pundits are saying these elections could be a bellwether for 2014's midterms, when 36 states (and three territories) will hold gubernatorial and legislative elections and when Congress (most likely just the Senate) could be up for grabs. Some are even saying these 2013 elections will have an impact on early front-runners for 2016.
As of right now, 2014 should be interesting with many closely-contested races. There are some very vulnerable governors out there - Connecticut Governor Dan Malloy (D), Florida Governor Rick Scott (R), Illinois Governor Pat Quinn (D) and Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett (R). And a few interesting open races -- Maryland, Massachusetts and Texas are shaping up as interesting primaries and possibly interesting general elections.
I am looking forward to an politically interesting 2014. Will 2013 be a bellwether? All I can say is, what a difference a year makes.
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