Virginia
Virginia continues to show why it is turning into a perennial swing state. Eight years of Democratic control of the Governor's Mansion, then four years of Republican control, and then a race that was supposed to go down to the wire. And it did, though I not what I had guessed a couple weeks ago. Terry McAuliffe is now the governor-elect, defeating Tea Party favorite Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli.
With no surprises Ralph Northam won the Lt. Governor's race and the race for Attorney General was too close to call. Less than 500 votes separate Republican Mark Obenshain from Democrat Mark Herring. A recall will decide the winner, which may not be decided before Decemeber.
I think this election shows that Virginia is less conservative that people thought two years ago, and that while there are pockets of very conservative voters, moderates have a great chance to win any state-wide race. If you can paint yourself as a credible moderate, especially a moderate Republican, you are going to have a chance to win.
A lot will be made about Robert Sarvis, and if he cost Cuccinelli the election. I think in the end, I think some early Sarvis supporters "came home" to Cunncinelli, and at the same time some soft McAuliffe supporters felt safe enough to cast a protest vote. In the end, I think he was a non-factor.
I think more telling than the Sarvis factor, is the Republican's lack of primaries or competitive primaries in the recent past. There is a lot of value in developing the kind of ground game needed to win a primary, and then building on it for a general election, rather than starting from scratch. I think you get better candidates with primaries. If nothing else, it is good practice for the general.
More telling that both Savis and the lack of primaries - Would Lt. Governor Bill Bolling have made a difference as the Republican nominee, or even with a strong endorsement of Cuccinelli? I think he would have.
New Jersey
In New Jersey, there were no surprises. Governor Chris Christie cruised to victory, while the legislature stayed safely in Democratic control. The most interesting thing that I saw, was the first public sighting of what may turn out to be the Republican 2016 Presidential ticket.
You can see #TheGov and Governor Martinez (R-NM) singing each other's praises on the stump - talking about leadership and the ability to work with Republicans, Democrats and Independents. Two Republican governors from traditional blue states could make a strong (and unconventional) ticket.
The knock against Governor Christie is going to be that he had no coattails. Let's be honest, he was never going to have any coattails in New Jersey. It is too Democratic, and the Republican party does not have the GOTV apparatus needed to facilitate a real coattail effect. But once Governor Christie is out on the trail, his message could play very well in some swing districts with tight races in states with better party support. We'll know more when we see how effective Governor Christie is as incoming chair of the RGA, and see if he can at least keep if not grow the number of Republican governors.
In little surprise Democrats dominate mayoral races (i = incumbents)...
- Atlanta - Kasim Reed (D/i)
- Boston - State Rep. Marty Walsh (D)
- Charlotte - Patrick Connan (D)
- Cincinnati - John Cranley (D)
- Cleveland - Frank Jackson (D/i)
- Detroit - Mike Duggan (D)
- Houston - Annise Parker (D/i)
- Miami - Tom Regalando (R/i)
- New York - Bill de Blasio (D)
- Pittsburg - Bill Peduto (D)
- San Francisco - Ed Lee (D)
- Seattle - State Sen. Ed Murray
- St. Paul - Chris Coleman (D/i)
Republicans do well in New York (in races outside of NYC) ...
- Republicans took over the majority in Erie County (Buffalo, NY area) Legislature.
- In Nassau County, current County Executive Ed Mangano defeated former County Executive Tom Suozzi in a rematch from four years ago.
- In Westchester County, County Executive Rob Astorino, the man being described as New York's Chris Christie, was reelected in a heavily Democratic county. The bad news for Mr. Astorino is that he immediately became the favorite to challenge well-financed and popular Governor Andrew Cuomo.
Some interesting ballot measures in 2013...
- Colorado proved once again that very few electorates will ever vote directly to impose a tax on themselves. The state-wide ballot measure to invest $1 Billion in education failed.
- Texas voters approved a $2 Billion water infrastructure plan, but that was taxes people already paid.
- Washington state joins California by mandating labels for GMO food, with the anti-Monsanto bill.
- New Jersey voters approve minimum wage hike, and tied future hikes to inflation.
- In a few city-wide ballots: Seattle rejected a plan to provide public financing for campaigns, Houston voters condemned the AstroDome and Cincinnati voters reject pension reform.
Bad News for Big Coal...
Four candidates backed by opponents to a proposed coal export facility have won seats on the seven-member Whatcom County (Washington) Council. The election of the Carl Weimer, Rud Browne, Barry Buchanan and Ken Mann probably means the end of the plant which would have shipped as much as 48 million tons of coal to China.
As we know, while the 2013 cycle is over the 2014 and 2016 cycles are just getting warmed up. So look for our 2014 preview in our next post.
About Michael O'Brien...
Michael O'Brien is the founder and principal of MOB Advocacy. He has more than ten years experience as a state and local lobbyist. Michael has lobbied governors, mayors, legislators, state and local agencies and regulators in more than 40 states.
Before starting MOB Advocacy, Michael was the the national state and local government affairs department for RISE (Responsible Industry for a Sound Environment). Prior to RISE, Michael launched Molina Healthcare's political and grassroots advocacy programs, created strong public-private partnerships as director of The Washington Center, and developed a federal, state and grassroots advocacy program for The National Conference for Community and Justice.
About MOB Advocacy...
MOB Advocacy is a full-service, multi-state government relations firm located in Fairfax City, Virginia. Founded in 2012, MOB Advocacy has quickly become a recognized leader in state and local government relations.
MOB Advocacy's clients range from established corporations, tech start-ups, nationally recognized non-profit and advocacy groups. Our clients chose us because MOB Advocacy offers the full range of solutions of a large government relations firm with the personal service of a boutique firm. Mob Advocacy helps its clients to navigate the complex world of state and local legislative and regulatory affairs, procurement bureaucracy and appropriations processes to achieve their organizational goals.
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