Its Over (finally) ...

It's over! (finally)...  Otherwise known as my 2013 post-election wrap-up.  Let's take a look at what happened or didn't happen this Election Day.

Virginia

Virginia continues to show why it is turning into a perennial swing state.  Eight years of Democratic control of the Governor's Mansion, then four years of Republican control, and then a race that was supposed to go down to the wire.  And it did, though I not what I had guessed a couple weeks ago. Terry McAuliffe is now the governor-elect, defeating Tea Party favorite Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli.

With no surprises Ralph Northam won the Lt. Governor's race and the race for Attorney General was too close to call.  Less than 500 votes separate Republican Mark Obenshain from Democrat Mark Herring. A recall will decide the winner, which may not be decided before Decemeber.

I think this election shows that Virginia is less conservative that people thought two years ago, and that while there are pockets of very conservative voters, moderates have a great chance to win any state-wide race.  If you can paint yourself as a credible moderate, especially a moderate Republican, you are going to have a chance to win.

A lot will be made about Robert Sarvis, and if he cost Cuccinelli the election.  I think in the end, I think some early Sarvis supporters "came home" to Cunncinelli, and at the same time some soft McAuliffe supporters felt safe enough to cast a protest vote.  In the end, I think he was a non-factor.

I think more telling than the Sarvis factor, is the Republican's lack of primaries or competitive primaries in the recent past.  There is a lot of value in developing the kind of ground game needed to win a primary, and then building on it for a general election, rather than starting from scratch.  I think you get better candidates with primaries.  If nothing else, it is good practice for the general.

More telling that both Savis and the lack of primaries - Would Lt. Governor Bill Bolling have made a difference as the Republican nominee, or even with a strong endorsement of Cuccinelli?  I think he would have.


New Jersey

In New Jersey, there were no surprises.  Governor Chris Christie cruised to victory, while the legislature stayed safely in Democratic control.  The most interesting thing that I saw, was the first public sighting of what may turn out to be the Republican 2016 Presidential ticket.

You can see #TheGov and Governor Martinez (R-NM) singing each other's praises on the stump - talking about leadership and the ability to work with Republicans, Democrats and Independents.  Two Republican governors from traditional blue states could make a strong (and unconventional) ticket.

The knock against Governor Christie is going to be that he had no coattails.  Let's be honest, he was never going to have any coattails in New Jersey.  It is too Democratic, and the Republican party does not have the GOTV apparatus needed to facilitate a real coattail effect.  But once Governor Christie is out on the trail, his message could play very well in some swing districts with tight races in states with better party support.  We'll know more when we see how effective Governor Christie is as incoming chair of the RGA, and see if he can at least keep if not grow the number of Republican governors.


In little surprise Democrats dominate mayoral races (i = incumbents)...

• Atlanta - Kasim Reed (D/i)
• Boston - State Rep. Marty Walsh (D)
• Charlotte - Patrick Connan (D)
• Cincinnati - John Cranley (D)
• Cleveland - Frank Jackson (D/i)
• Detroit - Mike Duggan (D)
• Houston - Annise Parker (D/i)
• Miami - Tom Regalando (R/i)
• New York - Bill de Blasio (D)
• Pittsburg - Bill Peduto (D)
• San Francisco - Ed Lee (D)
• Seattle - State Sen. Ed Murray
• St. Paul - Chris Coleman (D/i)

Republicans do well in New York (in races outside of NYC) ...

• Republicans took over the majority in Erie County (Buffalo, NY area) Legislature.  

• In Nassau County, current County Executive Ed Mangano defeated former County Executive Tom Suozzi in a rematch from four years ago.  

• In Westchester County, County Executive Rob Astorino, the man being described as New York's Chris Christie, was reelected in a heavily Democratic county.  The bad news for Mr. Astorino is that he immediately became the favorite to challenge well-financed and popular Governor Andrew Cuomo. 

Some interesting ballot measures in 2013...

• Colorado proved once again that very few electorates will ever vote directly to impose a tax on themselves.  The state-wide ballot measure to invest $1 Billion in education failed.

• Texas voters approved a $2 Billion water infrastructure plan, but that was taxes people already paid.

• Washington state joins California by mandating labels for GMO food, with the anti-Monsanto bill. 

• New Jersey voters approve minimum wage hike, and tied future hikes to inflation.

• In a few city-wide ballots: Seattle rejected a plan to provide public financing for campaigns, Houston voters condemned the AstroDome and Cincinnati voters reject pension reform.

Bad News for Big Coal...

Four candidates backed by opponents to a proposed coal export facility have won seats on the seven-member Whatcom County (Washington) Council. The election of the Carl Weimer, Rud Browne, Barry Buchanan and Ken Mann probably means the end of the plant which would have shipped as much as 48 million tons of coal to China.  

As we know, while the 2013 cycle is over the 2014 and 2016 cycles are just getting warmed up.  So look for our 2014 preview in our next post.

About Michael O'Brien...

Michael O'Brien is the founder and principal of MOB Advocacy. He has more than ten years experience as a state and local lobbyist. Michael has lobbied governors, mayors, legislators, state and local agencies and regulators in more than 40 states.

Before starting MOB Advocacy, Michael was the the national state and local government affairs department for RISE (Responsible Industry for a Sound Environment). Prior to RISE, Michael launched Molina Healthcare's political and grassroots advocacy programs, created strong public-private partnerships as director of The Washington Center, and developed a federal, state and grassroots advocacy program for The National Conference for Community and Justice.

About MOB Advocacy...

MOB Advocacy is a full-service, multi-state government relations firm located in Fairfax City, Virginia. Founded in 2012, MOB Advocacy has quickly become a recognized leader in state and local government relations.

MOB Advocacy's clients range from established corporations, tech start-ups, nationally recognized non-profit and advocacy groups. Our clients chose us because MOB Advocacy offers the full range of solutions of a large government relations firm with the personal service of a boutique firm. Mob Advocacy helps its clients to navigate the complex world of state and local legislative and regulatory affairs, procurement bureaucracy and appropriations processes to achieve their organizational goals.

Down to the Wire -- What a Difference a Year Makes

We are just under two weeks away from Election Day, with state legislative and gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia and some big mayoral races in Boston, Detroit, New York and others.

One year ago, I thought the gubernatorial races could be interesting and closely contested.  At least I was right about interesting part.

A year ago New Jersey was about to get hit by Hurricane Sandy, which ravaged the Jersey coastline. To make matters worse an early snow storm (and Congress) delayed recovery efforts.  A year ago, Newark Mayor Corey Booker was still considering challenging Governor Christie, in what would have been an epic battle of political heavy weights.

Hurricane Sandy allowed Governor Christie to demonstrate strong leadership in a crisis, which allowed the governor to begin to move ahead of any potential Democratic challengers.  It didn't hurt that he was able to embrace President Obama for the president's leadership before, during and after the storm.  It didn't hurt that Christie called out Speaker John Boehner and House Republicans for holding up Sandy Relief funds in a game of political chicken.  It didn't hurt that Mayor Booker opted for a Senate run, rather than face the popular governor.  And it didn't hurt that Governor Christie was able to keep Mayor Booker off the November ballot by holding a special election for an open Senate seat in October.  All of that has Governor Christie coasting to an apparent victory.

So instead of an close and interesting race, we are left wondering what might have been.  And wondering how much does Christie have to win by to be considered a credible candidate for president in 2016.

A year ago Virginia was looking at an ugly gubernatorial race involving two very polarizing candidates - former DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe and Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli.  No two candidates were as hated by the base of their opponents as these two candidates.

A year seems like a very long time ago for Virginia Republicans.  In February this year, Governor Bob McDonnell's (R) crowning legislative achievement, a much-needed transportation bill, passed after being embraced by the Demcorcatic candidate and denounced by the Republican one.  Over the summer, Governor McDonnell became engulfed in a scandal regarding his relationship with Virginia businessman Jonnie Williams.  The scandal also threatened to derail the Attorney General's campaign for governor.  To further add to Cuccinelli's problems, Virginia Republicans nominated a little-known, far-right candidate for Lt. Governor.  The surprise nomination of E.W. Jackson forced Cuccinelli, a very conservative Tea Party favorite himself, to cancel post-convention press events.  Even Northern Virginia Republican icon, former Delegate Vince Callahan endorsed the former DNC chair.

So we are instead of a close race, we are left wondering if we can read anything into the Clintons stumping for their old friend in the final weeks of the election.  What does a big McAuliffe win mean for Secretary Clinton and her decision to run again in 2016?

A lot of political pundits are saying these elections could be a bellwether for 2014's midterms, when 36 states (and three territories) will hold gubernatorial and legislative elections and when Congress (most likely just the Senate) could be up for grabs.  Some are even saying these 2013 elections will have an impact on early front-runners for 2016.

As of right now, 2014 should be interesting with many closely-contested races.  There are some very vulnerable governors out there - Connecticut Governor Dan Malloy (D), Florida Governor Rick Scott (R), Illinois Governor Pat Quinn (D) and Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett (R).  And a few interesting open races -- Maryland, Massachusetts and Texas are shaping up as interesting primaries and possibly interesting general elections.

I am looking forward to an politically interesting 2014.  Will 2013 be a bellwether?  All I can say is, what a difference a year makes.

No Street Fight in New Jersey's 2013 Governor's Race

No, this is not a commercial for Newark Mayor Corey Booker (though I am a big fan of the Mayor).  Corey Booker recently announced he would not challenge incumbent Governor Chris Christie in the 2013 New Jersey Governor's Race.  His announcement brought back memories of my recent tour of duty in the Republic of Georgia (yes, the other Georgia).

While I was in Georgia, I worked for the U.S. Agency for International Development during some very interesting political times.  Georgia's capital city, Tbilisi, was holding direct elections for mayor for the very first time, as were other localities throughout the country.  Throughout the country, there were tales of dirty politics, rummors of voter intimidation, threats to candidates and shakedowns of local businesses.  Sounds a lot like a good old New Jersey election, doesn't it?

I am still not sure if it was a good idea or not, but the U.S. Embassy decided to show the Georgian people what a hotly contested municipal race in the U.S. looked like.  How?  By showing Street Fight, of course!  If you haven't seen it - you should (see clip below).

As one of the few people at the post that new anything about Mayor Booker or New Jersey politics, I was volunteered to present the video and moderate discussion in several locations around the city and the country.

Street Fight is a great story of the underdog going up against the political giant.  And showed the good and the (alleged) bad of New Jersey politics.  It features cameos of former Governor Jim McGreevey and current Governor Chris Christie, then a U.S. Attorney.  It is a great tale of dirty politics, rummors of voter intimidation, threats to candidates and shakedown of local businesses.  Sound familiar?

What did the Georgians think of Street Fight?  They all said those dirty tricks would never happen in Georgia.  Not in a former Soviet Republic.  They were upset that Booker lost, and glad to hear that he came back to become Mayor.  No one said it, but I think deep down they were glad to see their elections were not so different from a country that has been practicing democracy for over 200 years.  

I see some parallels between Mayor Booker and Georgia.  Corey Booker did not quit - obviously.  He came back and won.  He is now Mayor of Newark and prolific tweeter.  The Georgia opposition party did not quit either.  The opposition party (with some great work from k-global) formed the Georgia Dream Coalition and gained a majority in the Georgian Parliament.  Let's just hope that Bidzina Ivanishvili does not announce a run for the U.S. Senate in 2014 as well.

But since I do U.S. state government relations... What does the Mayor's announcement mean for New Jersey?  It might mean former NJ Department of Environmental Protection and current U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lisa Jackson, who recently announced her resignation effective January 21, 2013, enters the race.  It probably means a second term for Governor Christie.  But really, it means a much less interesting race without a Street Fight.

Why Can't We All Get Along?

Video curtesy of www.washingtonpost.com

In the wake of a historic storm and in the final stretch of a very ugly presidential campaign, we see the best of government and politics. We see a president and governor work together to begin both the healing process and the rebuilding process. We see the unlikely praise from the Democratic candidate and one a top surrogate of the Republican candidate. We see President Obama and Governor Christie working together and praising each other's leadership and action.

Yes, this is what we are supposed to do. In crisis we put aside our differences and work together.  But could this have ended differently?  Just look at the handling of the Katrina disaster, where President George Bush was looking at a historic storm that hit a state with Democratic Governor. With Katrina, there was nothing but in-fighting and finger pointing before, during and after.

Governor Christie has been as vocal a critic of President Obama as anyone. He has criticized the president for Obamacare and its lack of Medicaid flexibility, his handling of the economy, and his lack of leadership from the White House. Christie gave the keynote address at the Republican National Convention where an impending storm did not temper his remarks. He has been so critical of the president that he pondered a presidential run himself.

Oddly enough, this storm could end up cementing President Obama's re-election. It has allowed him to show he is willing and able to work with Republicans to get things done. It has allowed the president to step above the fray and appear presidential during a time when the all-important undecided voters are finally making up their minds.

I think this also may have cemented Governor Christie's re-election. As a Republican governor in a very blue state, Christie was probably going to face a strong Democratic challenger (rumors of Newark Mayor Corey Booker and others are constantly swirling around the Garden State). Having President Obama offer his thanks and praise could be no better endorsement for the governor.

Will it help or hurt Governor Christie in 2016?  Well ... let's get through November 6th first.