My Post Election Thoughts...

Elections are (finally) over!  We now know who is going to live in the governor's mansions and control the state houses.  As with any election, there were some surprises and interesting story lines to watch.

The big story for states ... Obama-care is here to stay (for now anyway).  States will be deciding if and how to expand Medicaid and implement health insurance exchanges without breaking state budgets.  The looming fiscal cliff could put huge strains on state budgets.  States and localities are the true government service providers (healthcare, education, public safety, emergency serivces) and rely heavily on federal dollars to provide these services.  Major cuts in federal dollars deal major blows to state and local governments.

Governors -

Most of the governor's races went as expected.  Incumbents won in Delaware, Missouri, North Dakota, Utah, Vermont and West Virginia.  Indiana's Mike Pense cruised to victory to replace a term-limited Mitch Daniels.

The competitive races truly lived up to their billing.  Governor-elect Maggie Hassan (D) defeated perennial candidate Ovide Lamontagne.  Democrats also held in Montana and Washington.  The Governor-elect Inslee (D) vs Attorney General McKenna was a great race to watch.  Many thought given the late polls that McKenna might have pulled it out, but because Washington State votes by mail he probably peaked a week too late.  In North Carolina, former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R) managed the only flip in the fifty states winning the seat left open by a retiring Governor Bev Perdue (D).  Gov. Louis Fortuno, a pro-statehood Republican was the only incumbent defeated, as he lost to Alejandro Garcia Padilla of the Popular Democratic Party, an anti-statehood candidate on the same day Puerto Ricans approved a pro-statehood referendum.

Attorneys General Races -

In Pennsylvania, Kathleen Granahan Kane (D) won the Attorney General's race, which could set up an investigation in to Governor Corbett's handling of the Jerry Sandusky case when he was the state's top attorney.

In West Virginia, Darrell McGraw(D) ends a 20-year run as Attorney General as he was narrowly defeated by Republican Patrick Morrisey.

Washington State went blue as out-going AG Rob McKenna (R) will be followed by Bob Ferguson.

Legislatures - 

The big news in state legislatures is the new supermajority in California.  In California, tax increases can only be approved by a two-thirds majority.  In recent sessions, that has meant that some Republicans would have to vote in favor.  That will change in January and Californians can expect to see tax increases in the near future.

Wisconsin - The Wisconsin Senate flipped majorities in the third time in two years (which is unusual considering they only hold elections every two years).  Republicans were able to retake the Senate majority that they won in 2010 and lost in the special elections of 2011 and 2012. 

The New York Senate will be led by a parliamentary-like coalition government as a few break-away Democrats will caucus with the Republicans.  This coalition seemed to work during the first two-years of the Cuomo administration and ended the chaos and disfunction that was symbolic of Albany during the Paterson administration.  Somehow Sheldon Silver looks like he will continue his leadership role as Speaker of the Assembly.

In Maine, Republican control of the legislature was short-lived as voters returned control to Democrats. Maine is unique in that the legislature "elects" the three Constitutional officers - Attorney General, Secretary of State and Treasurer.  Expect changes to come in all three offices.

New Hampshire - The country’s largest state legislature continues to see giant shifts in control.  For the third time in three elections that the New Hampshire House of Representatives has shifted control, this time back to the Democrats. Democrats also narrowed the gap in the Senate, a body they also controlled before the 2010 elections.

Arkansas Republicans control both houses of the Legislature for the first time since reconstruction, as Republicans took control of both the House and Senate.

Over all, Democrats had a good night on Election night.  Democrats netted 170 seats across the country. In addition to those mentioned, Democrats have flipped the Colorado House, both the Minnesota House and Senate and the Oregon House. In addition to wins in Arkansas and Wisconsin, Republicans were able to gain control of the Alaska State Senate.

Ballot Issues -

I am happy to say that marriage equality was a huge winner at the ballot box this year.  Marriage equality was approved by voters in Maryland, Maine, Washington and an attempt in Minnesota to ban marriage equality failed.  This was an amazing night as marriage equality was previously riding a thirty-three ballot losing streak.  To me, this should not be a political issue.  Our friends and family members are entitled to equal rights and protections under the law and more importantly should be able to celebrate their relationships with their partners.  Congratulations!

Why Can't We All Get Along?

Video curtesy of www.washingtonpost.com

In the wake of a historic storm and in the final stretch of a very ugly presidential campaign, we see the best of government and politics. We see a president and governor work together to begin both the healing process and the rebuilding process. We see the unlikely praise from the Democratic candidate and one a top surrogate of the Republican candidate. We see President Obama and Governor Christie working together and praising each other's leadership and action.

Yes, this is what we are supposed to do. In crisis we put aside our differences and work together.  But could this have ended differently?  Just look at the handling of the Katrina disaster, where President George Bush was looking at a historic storm that hit a state with Democratic Governor. With Katrina, there was nothing but in-fighting and finger pointing before, during and after.

Governor Christie has been as vocal a critic of President Obama as anyone. He has criticized the president for Obamacare and its lack of Medicaid flexibility, his handling of the economy, and his lack of leadership from the White House. Christie gave the keynote address at the Republican National Convention where an impending storm did not temper his remarks. He has been so critical of the president that he pondered a presidential run himself.

Oddly enough, this storm could end up cementing President Obama's re-election. It has allowed him to show he is willing and able to work with Republicans to get things done. It has allowed the president to step above the fray and appear presidential during a time when the all-important undecided voters are finally making up their minds.

I think this also may have cemented Governor Christie's re-election. As a Republican governor in a very blue state, Christie was probably going to face a strong Democratic challenger (rumors of Newark Mayor Corey Booker and others are constantly swirling around the Garden State). Having President Obama offer his thanks and praise could be no better endorsement for the governor.

Will it help or hurt Governor Christie in 2016?  Well ... let's get through November 6th first.

Welcome to mob advocacy's new blog

Welcome to The State of the States - the new mob advocacy blog.  In this blog, we will share our thoughts on state and local government and political news, interesting or trending legislation and thoughts on life in a small (but growing) start-up firm.

We at mob advocacy are very excited this week.  In addition to launching this blog and preparing for our website to go live, we signed a new client - Student Veterans Advocacy Group (SVAG)!  mob advocacy will manage SVAG's national state legislative campaign aimed at increasing educational opportunities for veterans and their families.  You may not know this, but due to a change in the 2011 GI Bill, veterans can only get reimbursed for the cost of in-state tuition at public colleges and universities.  Since active duty military rarely meet state resident criteria, they are forced to make up the difference between in-state and out-of-state tuition.  That cost usually makes it too expensive to attend.  We say, Vets have sacrificed... Vets have earned it... so, Let Vets Go!  (if you see #LetVetsGo on twitter, please retweet, especially to your governor and state legislators) 

At the end of the week, mob advocacy will be attending the summer meeting of the National Governors Association (NGA) in Williamsburg, Virginia.  The NGA meetings are a great opportunity to build relationships with governors and their key staff members, discuss issues our clients are currently having or expect to have in the next legislative session, and learn about the important issues facing our state governments (and sometimes even sharing ideas for solving them).  mob advocacy will represent our clients at the meeting.  Should you be one of them?  If you have legislative or regulatory issues in your state (or several states), we should talk.

Healthcare is always a big discussion at NGA meetings. With the recent U.S. Supreme Court (SCOTUS) decision upholding most of the Affordable Care Act this meeting will be no different.  Many governors and state legislatures will spend the next twelve months deciding if and how to implement some, all or none of the law.  Health exchanges and the optional Medicaid expansion will certainly be hot topics.  Almost no one thought SCOTUS would decide to make Medicaid expansion optional, not even the National Association of State Medicaid Directors [read a great article here].  Now several governors, like Governor Rick Perry (R-TX) [article] , have announced they are not expanding their Medicaid programs and others, such as Governor Jan Brewer (R-AZ) [article], are weighing the options.

Thanks for reading.  Feel free to comment, suggest a topic, ask a question.  Follow my twitter feed (@mob_advocacy) throughout the NGA meeting (#NGA2012) , and look for our post-NGA wrap up next week.

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